Analysis-Only Compliance & Terminology Hub

A market on whether an NBA or NFL player's recorded performance statistic finishes over or under a stated line.

The arithmetic return per unit of stake if a stated win probability were exact: p × b − (1 − p), where b is the net profit per dollar on a win at the selected price. Describes the price and the assumed probability, not the future.

The stake fraction f* = (p × b − (1 − p)) / b that maximizes long-run bankroll growth if the win probability p is exactly right. Because real probabilities are estimates, the tool applies a user-selected fraction (default quarter Kelly) and a hard maximum-stake cap.

The application of the Kelly criterion at a user-selected fraction, capped at a user-selected maximum share of bankroll, to an EV computed from the analysis price and a win probability (historical hit rate by default, or the user's own estimate). It is an arithmetic illustration, not a recommendation.

The total amount of money a user allocates to this activity, entered and stored only in the user's own browser. It is never transmitted to the server and never persisted in any analysis snapshot.

One comparison of a player prop's price with evidence from a defined set of eligible games.

The performance threshold used to settle a player prop as a win, loss, or push.

The offered odds whose payout determines the probability required to break even.

The win probability at which the sportsbook price has zero expected profit before considering pushes.

The market probability obtained by normalizing the prices on both sides to remove the sportsbook margin.

The explicitly selected historical sample, such as season, last 20, last 10, last 5, versus opponent, or home/away.

An official completed game in the selected evidence window and season type in which the player appeared. DNPs are excluded, overtime is included, and unusually low minutes remain visible.

The share of settled, non-push games in an evidence window that would have won at the selected line and side. It describes the sample and is not a forecast.

A settled outcome in which the recorded statistic equals an integer line and the stake is returned.

The historical hit rate minus the sportsbook price's break-even probability, expressed in percentage points. It is descriptive evidence, not a guaranteed edge.

A neutral summary of whether the historical evidence is above, inconclusive against, or below the break-even probability. It is not a wager recommendation.

The calculated return at the sportsbook price if the selected historical hit rate were the future win probability. It is an illustration, not a forecast.

An interval showing the sampling uncertainty around a historical hit rate. It does not measure every source of future uncertainty.

A preserved record of an analysis's inputs, evidence, result, source, and time. A later recalculation is a new analysis rather than a revision of the snapshot.